Since Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call parliamentary elections, I have felt the obligation to write something about its meaning. With the first and second rounds of these French parliamentary elections surrounding July 4 British parliamentary elections (themselves surprisingly called in advance several weeks ago) as well as the possible return of Donald Trump to the American presidency later this year, 2024 really does seem to be shaping up to be something of a turning point.
However, I was struggling to come up with anything worthwhile to say until I saw the above image which has been popping up during the recent G7 summit in Italy. As it happens, I had seen this point made about the current unpopularity of “developed world” leaders in other ways on a number of occasions during the past year or two, typically as a way of explaining the (relative) unpopularity of Joe Biden given the relatively strong performance of the US economy since 2022. That is, given how unpopular leaders like Sunak or Schulz are, the US economy’s relatively strong performance is in fact helping Biden. If the American economy were like that of Britain or Germany, Biden would currently be way behind Trump!
In one sense, I think this is true. If unemployment was 9% and inflation was still rising 8% annually, Biden almost certainly would be less popular. But I don’t think this is sufficient to explain the remarkable extent to which almost all global leaders in economically wealthy countries are chronically unpopular. These types of abysmal opinion ratings are not a post-Covid 19 phenomena.1 Current global economic circumstances are not particularly good, but they are nowhere near as bad as they were in the 1930s or 1970s either. They are not bad enough to explain how it is now normal for politicians in the 21st century to have chronically bad approval scores. I think there are other forces at work that material explanations alone cannot explain.
I think I first saw the above image in a tweet which I think, in itself, gets at why democratically elected politicians are chronically unpopular:
For one, the image has been produced and circulated on social media, itself almost certainly a cause of our pervasive sense of cynicism and malaise, which a tweet like this personifies. This of course is a much debated topic that I can’t properly address here, but I do think those arguing for the importance of social media in the collapse of trust in political figures are largely correct. Critics often talk about the way the internet—and most specifically, social media—has worked to isolate individuals and atomize society. This analysis points in the right direction, but I don’t think it quite captures the phenomena. Fundamentally, digital communication encourages people to view the world they are a part of with a level of detachment, often from behind an anonymous persona. Unsurprisingly, if you spend multiple hours a day experiencing the world from this perspective, you will very likely fell less empathy for others. Collectively, detached, low empathy individuals will constitute a cynical, low trust society.2
Secondly, the tweet’s text is an excellent example of this type of discourse. Its tone is arch, self-satisfied, and abrasive. In quotes, “democracy” is simply a pious platitude that is of a little real value. How ironic, how funny that affluent, liberal democratic countries are struggling and its leaders are unpopular! To be sure, there are problems in these societies, but its bad faith online critics aren’t interested in fixing them. Indeed, the correct, knowing pose is to criticize others who, however clumsily, are attempting to solve problems. But actually trying to make the world a better place? That’s for losers.
I don’t think its an accident that such cynical, low trust societies increasingly elect right wing politicians, whose political creed thinks and expects less of voters. But even these right wing politicians often fail and themselves become unpopular when they try to govern in earnest. Those right wing politicians that have had more staying power (e.g. Berlusconi, Trump) do so by treating good faith governance as a joke, reflecting the cynicism of an increasing share of our societies. Simply put, earnestly carrying out the tasks of governing a bureaucratic state built in the 20th century seems overly earnest and uncool to 21st century social media consumers.
In several weeks, two potential political earthquakes will occur within a week. In the United Kingdom, the hopelessly unpopular Conservative government led by Rishi Sunak will not only be routed by Labour, but could very well end up the 3rd or 4th largest party in the new Parliament. Concurrently, in France, Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party/movement will be smashed, very possibly ending up with well under 50 seats. Yet, within 18 months or so, I am certain that Kier Starmer will have an approval rating close to as dismal as Rishi Sunak’s. Likewise, whoever emerges as Prime Minister from the French Parliamentary brawl—whether someone from the RN, the Front Populaire, or elsewhere—will likely be extremely unpopular as well inside a similar time frame (with a possible exception of an RN majority).3 The cycle will repeat because our societies are built to dislike the very act of governing.
To take just the United States as an example: as charismatic a politician as Barack Obama was, he was unpopular about 75% of the time he was office. George W. Bush spent most of his second term with approval ratings below 35%, sometimes much worse. Donald Trump never had an approval rating above 50%. Congress consistently has approval ratings below 20%, sometimes lower, while Americans thinking the country has been on the “wrong track” has been over 70% for most of the 21st century.
We are now capable harshly judging anything and everything in a way we wouldn’t and don’t do when we communicate with others in person. Indeed, I have been surprised on multiple occasions by the fundamental decency of people who have very unpleasant social media personas when I have the chance to see or here them in person.
I make a possible exception here for an RN majority, as the party capitalizes on the type of anomie, cynicism, and social distrust that have propelled other right populist to power. Still, I don’t think either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella have the uncanny grasp of the modern information environment someone like Donald Trump or Silvio Berlusconi has. While Bardella might have a lot of followers on TikTok, neither or Le Pen are really creators of social media. For them, politics is still serious business in a way it isn’t for Trump or Berlusconi.